2026 · tracking since week 6
Projections vs Final
Every Sunday we freeze our season projections. This page keeps score: how often our favorites won, whether our win chances matched reality, and how projected records compare with actual records.
Weekly accuracy
| Projection week | Next-week games | Favorites won |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 1 | 100% |
| Tracking started this week. Results fill in as games are played. | ||
Calibration
When we gave a favorite a certain chance, how often did it actually win?
70-80%
100% won · 1
Projected vs actual wins (FBS)
| Team | Record at week 6 | Projected wins then | Projected wins now | Record now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 6-0 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 6-0 |
| Notre Dame | 6-0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 6-0 |
| UCLA | 5-0 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 5-0 |
| Georgia | 6-0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 6-0 |
| Miami | 5-0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5-0 |
| James Madison | 6-0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 6-0 |
| BYU | 5-0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5-0 |
| Alabama | 5-1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5-1 |
| Texas Tech | 5-0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5-0 |
| Liberty | 5-1 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 5-1 |
| North Dakota State | 5-1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 5-1 |
| Utah | 5-0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 5-0 |
| Houston | 5-1 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 5-1 |
| Wake Forest | 5-1 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 5-1 |
| Iowa | 5-1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5-1 |
| New Mexico | 4-1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4-1 |
| Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5-1 |
| Ohio State | 5-1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5-1 |
| Memphis | 5-1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5-1 |
| Boise State | 5-1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5-1 |
| UTSA | 5-1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5-1 |
| Nebraska | 5-1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5-1 |
| Arizona | 5-1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5-1 |
| Texas | 4-1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4-1 |
| Georgia State | 4-1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4-1 |
| Kentucky | 5-1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 5-1 |
| Missouri | 5-1 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 5-1 |
| Northwestern | 4-1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4-1 |
| Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4-1 |
| Mississippi State | 4-1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4-1 |
| Air Force | 4-1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4-1 |
| Tennessee | 5-1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 5-1 |
| Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4-1 |
| SMU | 4-1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4-1 |
| Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4-2 |
| North Texas | 4-2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4-2 |
| USC | 6-1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 6-1 |
| Louisiana | 4-2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4-2 |
| Ohio | 4-2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4-2 |
| Ole Miss | 4-1 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 4-1 |