2026 · through week 6
Playoff Odds
Chances for every FBS contender to win its conference, make the 12-team College Football Playoff and earn a first-round bye, based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Most likely bracket
First-round byes
- 1 Indiana99%
- 2 Notre Dame99%
- 3 Alabama99%
- 4 Miami95%
First round · winner plays No. 1
5 BYU
12 Texas
First round · winner plays No. 4
8 Houston
9 Utah
First round · winner plays No. 2
6 Georgia
11 Ohio State
First round · winner plays No. 3
7 UCLA
10 Texas Tech
Format: five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large teams; top four seeds get byes.
Contenders
| Team | Rec | Proj | Conf title | Playoff | Bye | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 6-0 | 10.7-1.3 | – | 99% | 72% | – |
| Alabama | 5-1 | 9.9-2.1 | 45% | 99% | 63% | – |
| Indiana | 6-0 | 10.9-1.1 | 50% | 99% | 73% | – |
| Miami | 5-0 | 10.3-1.7 | 65% | 95% | 58% | – |
| Georgia | 6-0 | 10.4-1.6 | 36% | 95% | 36% | – |
| UCLA | 5-0 | 10.6-1.4 | 30% | 90% | 32% | – |
| BYU | 5-0 | 10.0-2.0 | 40% | 90% | 38% | – |
| Houston | 5-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 19% | 74% | 9% | – |
| Texas Tech | 5-0 | 9.9-2.1 | 16% | 58% | 5% | – |
| Utah | 5-0 | 9.5-2.5 | 16% | 54% | 8% | – |
| Ohio State | 5-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 10% | 53% | 4% | – |
| Texas | 4-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 6% | 39% | 2% | – |
| James Madison | 6-0 | 10.1-1.9 | 47% | 29% | 0% | – |
| Boise State | 5-1 | 8.7-2.3 | 50% | 25% | 0% | – |
| Wake Forest | 5-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 14% | 20% | <1% | – |
| Missouri | 5-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 4% | 18% | <1% | – |
| Iowa | 5-1 | 8.9-3.1 | 3% | 17% | <1% | – |
| Kentucky | 5-1 | 8.6-3.4 | 3% | 12% | <1% | – |
| Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 10% | 12% | <1% | – |
| Liberty | 5-1 | 9.7-2.3 | 59% | 12% | 0% | – |
| North Dakota State | 5-1 | 9.5-2.5 | 36% | 11% | 0% | – |
| Mississippi State | 4-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 2% | 11% | <1% | – |
| LSU | 4-2 | 7.7-4.3 | 1% | 11% | <1% | – |
| Nebraska | 5-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 2% | 9% | <1% | – |
| New Mexico | 4-1 | 8.9-3.1 | 35% | 8% | 0% | – |
| Oregon State | 4-2 | 7.5-3.5 | 41% | 7% | 0% | – |
| Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 3% | 6% | <1% | – |
| Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8.2-3.8 | 5% | 6% | 0% | – |
| Georgia State | 4-1 | 8.6-3.4 | 13% | 5% | 0% | – |
| Northwestern | 4-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 1% | 5% | <1% | – |
| Arizona | 5-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 3% | 5% | 0% | – |
| Tennessee | 5-1 | 8.2-3.8 | 2% | 4% | <1% | – |
| SMU | 4-1 | 8.2-3.8 | 5% | 4% | 0% | – |
| North Carolina | 3-2 | 7.5-4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | – |
| Memphis | 5-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 24% | 3% | 0% | – |
| UTSA | 5-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 28% | 3% | 0% | – |
| Ole Miss | 4-1 | 7.8-4.2 | 1% | 2% | <1% | – |
| Baylor | 4-1 | 7.4-4.6 | 2% | 2% | 0% | – |
| Oregon | 3-2 | 7.5-4.5 | 1% | 1% | 0% | – |
| North Texas | 4-2 | 8.1-3.9 | 27% | 1% | 0% | – |